最近円安に著しく進んでいるが、トヨタからの輸出が減っていることが問題視されている。
アベノミクスによる円安誘導は国内への生産回帰を目指したものであり、すわアベノミクスの誤算であると騒ぎ立てるのはいかがなものかと思うが、国策として円安を進めている中、トヨタが国内生産を増やすことで円安のメリットを獲りにいかないのは国家に対する不信用を示唆する痛烈な皮肉であると言っていいだろう。
為替が将来どちらに触れるかなど誰にも分からないが、以前強烈な円高が進行した際にも国はこれを止めなかった。民主党政権については政権担当能力に疑義があるため同情するとしても、もはや日本国の力で一方的な円安、円高を是正する力がないことが明らかである以上、企業としては為替変動による損益に対するリスクを最小限にとどめる方向を目指すのが王道であり、物価が安い国で精算して高い国で売ることで利ザヤを稼ぐというのは刹那的であり、また利益のために安定性を失う自殺行為でもあると捉えているのかもしれない。
トヨタでは結果的に円安で輸出からの利益幅が増大し、過去最高益を計上する勢いであるが、それをさらに拡大するために国内に生産を回帰させることはなかった。企業偏重と批判されがちな展開ではあるが、それが日経平均の高騰に繋がり、資産価値の上昇により消費意欲が高まり、消費が旺盛になることで国内産業が潤うような順回転に繋がれば何の問題もない。
そもそも今の為替レートが適切であるかと言えば、個人的には少し円安が行き過ぎているのではないかと感じている。欧米に行くと非常に物価が高く感じられるためで、以前80円の頃は欧米での物価を安く感じたものでそれはそれで行き過ぎだと思うが、生活水準感でいけば100円ぐらいが妥当なのではないだろうか。日本が円安に誘導し、米国がドル高を問題視していない現状では円安局面が続くことが想定されるだろうが、長い目で見てこの円安が続くのかと言われれば疑問である。
正確に分かれば苦労はなく、今より圧倒的に円安になっていく可能性もあり、逆もまたしかりであるが、今の相場観だけで国内に生産を回帰させようとするのは甚だ危険な賭けであると言わざるをえまい。
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